The UK Potato Market – May 2012
In the last Farmer’s View, I was wishing for rain to improve the very dry soil before planting and my wishes were granted tenfold! Planting in our area came to a standstill in early April with many growers still only having about 20% of the crop in the ground when the “April Showers!” arrived. One of our local growers recorded 158mm of rain in the month; six inches of water is a massive amount and the land was far too wet to attempt to cultivate for some time.
In some ways it might be a good thing that only a small proportion of the crops were planted early because the cold, wet weather can have adverse effects on newly planted crops. The fungal pathogen, rhizoctonia, is present in most soils but usually only causes significant damage in cold wet soil following planting. Stunted plants, misshapen tubers and poor yields are typical results following severe rhizoctonia infections of the growing shoots and roots. Other diseases caused by this fungus which appear in the actual tubers have awful but descriptive names; black scurf and canker!
Assuming the crop escapes these diseases, heavy rain can be a nuisance in that it washes soil from the potato ridges so that later in the growing season the uppermost new tubers become exposed to light and consequently go green. Some low-lying fields will have areas which have been flooded and any planted potatoes will rot if under water for any significant length of time. There are reports of some growers having to re-plant the worst areas so there is now a shortage of seed.
It is now almost the end of May and some growers still have considerable acreages to plant. In fact I can’t remember experiencing such a late season. It seems certain that some will be planted in June. In our area we are about six weeks behind last year.
Despite all the rain during April and early May it will not be enough to replace the longer term shortage of water in some areas. The reason for this can be seen locally. Every day we cross over a stream, the Gypsy Race, and even after all this rain it is still hardly flowing. The water table was clearly so low before the rain that it still is not high enough to create the springs to fill the stream. Interestingly, I was told the name “Gypsy” is given to a number of streams throughout Britain and it is because they come and go which suggests that these very dry and then very wet spells are quite common. (This may be someone pulling my leg in the pub of course – it is still a nice story though!)
The result of the delay in planting is that the maincrop growing season is starting much later than usual. Crops can catch up to a certain extent if the weather creates ideal growing conditions. If this doesn’t happen the total UK crop yield will be lower which, in turn, is likely to mean a higher priced year.
With regard to short-term prices, the late spring is creating a strengthening of the old crop market because it will have to last longer than expected. I had thought that there were ample stocks in store but the unprecedented late season has changed that view and it is now more uncertain. Planting is almost completed, so growers holding stock may have more time to load out of store and release more onto the market. But whether they will do this, or instead wait to see if prices rise further, remains to be seen. As usual, the weather will dictate what happens. If growing conditions seem ideal for the crop, confidence in the demand for old crop might falter. Conversely, if the weather seems unfavourable to good growth, the market for old crop will continue to firm.
